That is the Tremendous Bowl made for playing. The American Gaming Affiliation estimates that People will wager a mixed $23.1 billion on the Massive Recreation this yr, up from $16 billion year-over-year. Whether or not it’s your first time betting on the large recreation otherwise you’re a seasoned vet, you don’t need to be putting bets blindly. Take it from somebody who’s already put collectively in depth statistical deep-dives on this matchup: The chances may be in your favor on this Sunday evening. Put in your greatest Danny Ocean impression, and prepare to rob Vegas blind this weekend with the perfect bets of Tremendous Bowl LVIII.

Reba McEntire Nationwide Anthem 90.5 seconds

Take the below

I stated in our “Most Outlandish Prop Bets” column earlier this week that I assumed it was ridiculous for McEntire to go below 90 seconds on the Anthem. It’s a breakneck tempo that solely marching bands play at. Singers savor the second. They soak all of it in, and add little vocal prospers. Then I noticed this playlist compiled by Reba(‘s YouTube channel) herself. It makes up a handful of her most notable former runs on the Anthem. I used to be blown away. She is EFFICIENT. Nonetheless will get the vocal aptitude in, adlibs a bit, and nonetheless will get in effectively below the wire. A few of her runs in the course of the World Collection virtually end within the 70s. Her splits are loopy, hitting “rocket’s pink glare” routinely across the 35-second mark. I’ll add she will get slower with age – her anthem on the 1974 Rodeo was a breakneck 72 seconds, whereas her anthem at a 1999 Cowboys recreation was precisely 90 seconds. If we’re being actually sharp, betting below 90 seconds might be chopping it shut, however any books the place you see a 1:35, or 1:40 line, hammer the below.

Patrick Mahomes 260.5 Passing Yards

Take the below

Mahomes is understood for his unimaginable achievements by means of the air. This virtually looks like a rat line. Mahomes has thrown below 260 yards in 37 of his 113 profession video games, playoffs or common season. Which means we place this guess on any recreation at random in Mahomes’ profession, we lose simply over two out of each 3 times. Of these 37, although, 12 have occurred this season, with one coming within the playoffs in opposition to Buffalo. Mahomes additionally threw for simply 182 yards throughout final yr’s Tremendous Bowl in opposition to Philadelphia. The Chiefs quarterback doesn’t usually over-produce in Tremendous Bowls, both. With significantly better offenses than this one, Mahomes has by no means damaged 286 passing yards in a Tremendous Bowl. This can be a quarterback that can do something to win. That features taking a backseat to the run recreation, or successful together with his personal legs to make the most of the 49ers. There are related sharp strains on Purdy for yardage and move try totals, however I feel strains are going to be far more favorable within the Mahomes division regardless of the same recreation plans.

Christian McCaffrey 128.5 Speeding + Receiving Yards

Take the over

I feel it’s protected to say that everybody who has achieved an oz. of analysis into this recreation is aware of Christian McCaffrey goes to play an enormous half in San Francisco’s recreation plan. The Chiefs have been abysmal stopping the run this season, and the 49ers are some of the run-heavy groups in soccer. This can be a completely set line. McCaffrey has eclipsed 128 all-purpose yards precisely 16 occasions within the 32 video games he has performed for San Francisco. That is, nonetheless, a little bit of a hedge on how I feel McCaffrey will get these yards. The Chiefs are the most effective groups within the league at masking up routes beneath. Of the 354 routes McCaffrey ran in 2023, 173 of them had been both flats, shallows, or screens, in keeping with thirty third Workforce’s The Edge. He runs the overwhelming majority of his routes (234 of 354) out of the backfield, that means they’re extra more likely to find yourself within the short-yardage blanket the Chiefs cowl so effectively. The true juice on McCaffrey lies in his alternate speeding prop. When you might choose McCaffrey getting over 128 all-purpose yards at -120, you will get his over 115 alternate speeding prop at +205. I’m too massive a coward, however possibly you’re not.

Rashee Rice 6.5 Receptions

Take the over

The Chiefs rookie has been the center and soul of this Chiefs receiving corps, working his catch totals up dramatically over the course of the season. Since Week 11 of the common season, Rice has solely fallen wanting the 6.5 receptions line twice in 9 video games – as soon as within the Week 17 matchup in opposition to the Bengals, and as soon as within the Divisional Spherical matchup in opposition to the Payments. This barely conflicts with my perception that the Chiefs may have a extra run-focused, methodical gameplan heading into Sunday, and Rice will certainly have his palms full most probably drawing Charvarius Ward as his major task, however should you assume that is going to be a detailed recreation in any respect, Rice is the man to guess on. Plus, his odds for six.5 catches are far more pleasant (-115 at DraftKings) than Travis Kelce’s to catch the identical passes (-166 at DraftKings).

Brock Purdy 0.5 Interceptions

Take the over

Brock Purdy is an efficient quarterback, however he’s nonetheless younger and just a little frantic. He’s superior within the Shanahan system as a result of he’s keen to take photographs downfield and make some big-risk throws. Purdy’s additionally knocked as a result of he makes some big-risk throws at occasions when he completely shouldn’t. Purdy is nice at escaping strain, however he makes extra turnover-worthy throws when pressured. The one means the Chiefs are going to remain on this recreation defensively is that if they power Purdy to make errors. Kansas Metropolis will get one blunder out of Purdy on Sunday.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling 19.5 Receiving Yards

Take the over

We touched on how loopy this line is within the “Outlandish Props” column, so I received’t go lengthy right here, however Marquez Valdes-Scanting is the one semi-functional Chiefs receiver not named Rashee Rice. He’s additionally Kansas Metropolis’s greatest big-play risk. Valdes-Scantling averages 18.38 yards per reception in his playoff profession. This yr alone, MVS is placing up 25 yards per reception within the postseason. That is virtually solely a guess on “Will Marquez Valdes-Scantling catch one move within the Tremendous Bowl?” If you happen to’re bullish on that, the road for his receiving prop can also be set at 1.5 receptions.

Javon Hargrave 0.25 sacks

Take the over

Nick Bosa goes to be the large level of give attention to the 49ers move rush, however the impression goes to be felt within the inside. With Joe Thuney struggling a torn pectoral, the Chiefs will doubtless be working Nick Allegretti at guard. Hargrave and Arik Armstead have been glorious on the inside move rush this yr, and getting strain with out blitzing is a key consider stopping the Mahomes offense. You possibly can choose both of the 49ers defensive tackles to get a sack, I simply selected Hargrave off sack whole and playoff efficiency.

First TD scored

Decide Deebo Samuel

Perhaps it’s the Jameson Williams trickery burned into my mind from the NFC Championship, however I simply have a sense about this one. I’m going into the primary landing prop like this: Of all of the attainable permutations and combos of a landing occurring on this recreation, who has essentially the most alternative to attain? McCaffrey as a dual-threat participant checks out right here, however I like Deebo on the larger odds. Samuel is among the most frequent tackle-breakers within the NFL, leads the 49ers in yards after the catch, and serves as a runner and a receiver. I just like the probabilities of San Francisco working one thing round Samuel’s hyper-varied skillset on the opening drive to attain.

Will There Be A Scorigami?

No

For the uninitiated, a Scorigami is a time period invented by Jon Bois used to explain a completely distinctive rating that’s by no means occurred earlier than in an NFL recreation. I need to guess sure on this. Scorigamis occur within the Tremendous Bowl as a result of an uptick in threat, the elevated desperation to attain, blended in with a little bit of bizarre luck. That being stated, should you look on the database of all scorigamis, we don’t have a ton of openings to work with. We’re anticipating this to be a defensive recreation, so if we hypothetically capped the successful crew’s level whole at 31 (4 normal landing/extra-point combos and a subject aim), our home windows are bleak. 11 is a chance to look out for – you may image a crew being held to a subject aim early, then scoring and going for 2 late. The numbers it strains up with, although, (12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 29) are more durable to examine. 8 has barely fewer openings below successful scores simply as obtuse. The others would simply be one-off scores like 25-18, 18-9. To guess on Sure at +2000 just about comes all the way down to praying for a 20-11 final result, or begging for subject objectives and safeties.